If you’ve seen viral posts warning that an asteroid—or some “extraterrestrial foreign object”—is barreling toward Earth, take a breath. The short answer: astronomers are watching the sky constantly, and as of now there is no confirmed asteroid on a collision course with Earth in 2026. Two global systems track these risks in real time: NASA’s Sentry risk tables and the European Space Agency’s Risk List. Both are updated whenever new observations come in, and neither currently shows a credible, near-term impact threat. CNEOS+1
Why the headlines then? Several things can spark alarm. First, very close flybys happen—and often with tiny asteroids that are discovered only hours or days before they zip past. In October 2025, for example, a small object designated 2025 TF passed over Antarctica at roughly the altitude of the International Space Station—dramatic, yes, but it never threatened impact. The same month, another house-sized rock (2025 TC) safely flew by at about 53,400 miles, inside the Moon’s orbit but still a miss. These encounters make great copy, yet they’re routine in planetary-defense terms. ScienceDaily+2ABC News+2
Second, risk levels change as data improve. Early orbit estimates can carry big uncertainties; a newly found object may briefly show a tiny non-zero impact probability years or decades out. A good recent example is asteroid 2024 YR4. It briefly topped risk lists in early 2025, even triggering formal international notifications—but continued tracking slashed the odds to essentially negligible for the next century. This pattern is common: more data, lower risk. The Guardian+2IAWN+2
What about the famous ones? The best-known close pass on the calendar is Apophis, which will sweep past safely on April 13, 2029—closer than many satellites, spectacular for skywatchers, but not an impact. NASA and ESA plan to study how Earth’s gravity tweaks its orbit during the flyby. NASA Science+1
How scientists measure danger
Astronomers use the Torino and Palermo scales to communicate hazard: most objects sit at zero (no risk), with higher numbers reserved for serious, well-constrained threats. If anything climbed into the red, it would appear immediately on Sentry/ESA lists and make global news via the International Asteroid Warning Network. Until then, assume sensational posts are outpacing the science. Wikipedia+2CNEOS+2
Bottom line for readers and filmmakers alike
• Expect more close shaves in the news—that’s normal as surveys get better.
• No credible source reports a 2026 strike.
• For facts, check NASA’s Sentry page and ESA’s Close Approaches dashboard; both update continuously and list every meaningful flyby. CNEOS+1
Photo by thebugadi ㅤ on Unsplash
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